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House trade ideas · Public record

Every trade idea we posted, scored. Losses left in.

Each of our posted trade ideas has an entry, a stop and a target. Once price reaches the entry it counts as a trade; it closes when price hits the stop or the target. Numbers below come straight from the production database, all time.

Hypothetical result What a trade idea would have made or lost at real market prices, even though no real order was placed. More plain-English terms These are engine trade ideas scored on paper, not executed trades. Sage's real trades are a different record: every closed trade in his stock and ETF account.

Headline results

Closed trades
5,201
Hit rate
38.5%
2,003 wins ÷ 5,201 closed
Average win
+2.58R
gained per winning trade, in units of the amount risked
Average loss
−1.01R
lost per losing trade, in units of the amount risked
Average per trade
+0.37R
all wins and losses averaged
Total
+1945.0R
sum of every closed trade

Since May 15, 2026 · 5,201 closed trades · last close Oct 9, 2026

In plain words: the Hit rate The share of closed trade ideas that made money. It is the same idea as a win rate. is 38.5% — that share of closed trades won. The Average win What the typical winning trade made: all the money made on winning trades, divided by the number of winning trades. More plain-English terms was +2.58R and the Average loss What the typical losing trade lost: all the money lost on losing trades, divided by the number of losing trades. More plain-English terms was −1.01R — R The amount risked on one trade idea: the distance from the entry to the stop. +2R means the idea made twice what it risked; −1R means it lost exactly what it risked. is the amount risked on the idea (entry to stop), so +1R means “gained what was risked”. The average win is 2.6× the size of the average loss. How we keep score · Where each result lives

Hypothetical results from our trade ideas, scored against market prices. Nobody traded them. They include no commissions, slippage, or real fills and have real limitations. Past results don't predict future results.

Pipeline: 7,295 unique ideas posted since May 14, 2026 (10,736 raw posts — identical re-posts of the same setup count once) · 6,891 triggered · 5,201 closed · 1,690 still open (oldest triggered May 28, 2026). Open trades are not in the results above until they close.

Running total, in R

in close order · 5,201 closed trades · ends at +1945.0R

Hypothetical results from our trade ideas, scored against market prices. Nobody traded them. They include no commissions, slippage, or real fills and have real limitations. Past results don't predict future results.

Last 6 weeks, by close day

2026-08-31 → 2026-10-11
08-31
14 closed
6W / 8L · +7.0R
09-01
18 closed
5W / 13L · −1.0R
09-02
22 closed
8W / 14L · +6.5R
09-03
29 closed
8W / 21L · −1.5R
09-04
14 closed
7W / 7L · +11.0R
·
·
09-07
20 closed
7W / 13L · +2.7R
09-08
19 closed
4W / 15L · −4.8R
09-09
14 closed
4W / 10L · +0.3R
09-10
11 closed
2W / 9L · −3.7R
09-11
8 closed
2W / 6L · −0.7R
·
·
09-14
7 closed
0W / 7L · −7.0R
09-15
17 closed
7W / 10L · +8.0R
09-16
8 closed
3W / 5L · +2.5R
09-17
13 closed
4W / 9L · +1.2R
09-18
27 closed
6W / 21L · −5.8R
·
·
09-21
12 closed
10W / 2L · +24.0R
09-22
4 closed
0W / 4L · −4.0R
09-23
1 closed
0W / 1L · −1.0R
09-24
1 closed
0W / 1L · −1.0R
·
·
·
·
·
09-30
8 closed
1W / 7L · −5.0R
10-01
29 closed
2W / 27L · −21.8R
10-02
5 closed
3W / 2L · +5.0R
·
·
10-05
12 closed
5W / 7L · +5.5R
10-06
25 closed
24W / 1L · +62.0R
10-07
8 closed
6W / 2L · +13.0R
10-08
85 closed
22W / 63L · −8.0R
10-09
39 closed
38W / 1L · +95.2R
·
·
net positive day net negative day no trades closed

Every close day

All 99 days with a closed trade. The total row equals the headline above.

Every close day, newest first. Latest 10 of 99 shown until you choose Show all.
DayClosedW / LTotal RAvg
3938 / 1+95.2R+2.44R
8522 / 63−8.0R−0.09R
86 / 2+13.0R+1.63R
2524 / 1+62.0R+2.48R
125 / 7+5.5R+0.46R
53 / 2+5.0R+1.00R
292 / 27−21.8R−0.75R
81 / 7−5.0R−0.63R
10 / 1−1.0R−1.00R
10 / 1−1.0R−1.00R
Total5,2012,003 / 3,198+1945.0R+0.37R
Show all 99 days

Replay one idea

Step through a single idea: when it was posted, when price reached the entry, and where it closed. Random picks are uniform across all 5,201 closed ideas, or all 3,198 losing ones.

Latest close: SNDK −1.00RRandom closed ideaRandom losing idea

Best and worst symbols

Symbols with at least 5 closed trades, ranked by average result per trade. Shown together so neither end is cherry-picked; the overall hit rate is 38.5%.

Best

  • GE28W / 0L · 28 closed+3.05R avg
  • SPCX14W / 0L · 14 closed+2.69R avg
  • LLY51W / 8L · 59 closed+2.55R avg
  • BAC32W / 0L · 32 closed+2.52R avg
  • JPM89W / 3L · 92 closed+2.46R avg

Worst

  • VTI0W / 25L · 25 closed−1.00R avg
  • TXN0W / 24L · 24 closed−1.00R avg
  • TSM0W / 84L · 84 closed−1.00R avg
  • SNDK0W / 18L · 18 closed−1.00R avg
  • RY0W / 28L · 28 closed−1.00R avg

How these numbers are counted

  • · Source: every house idea the engine posted (member-authored ideas excluded). No backfill, no edits.
  • · An idea is one setup: symbol, direction, strategy, entry, stop and target. If the engine re-posts the identical setup, it counts once (earliest post).
  • · A trade starts only when price reaches the entry (“triggered”). Ideas that never triggered are not trades.
  • · A trade closes when a 30-minute price check finds the stop or the target hit. It is scored at the stop or target price exactly — no commissions, slippage or gaps.
  • · Win = closed above zero R, loss = closed below zero R. Hit rate = wins ÷ closed trades.
  • · R = result ÷ amount risked (entry to stop), signed by direction. Average per trade = total R ÷ closed trades.
  • · Daily rows are grouped by the New York date the trade closed; the headline is their sum, all time.
  • · Hypothetical results from our trade ideas, scored against market prices. Nobody traded them. They include no commissions, slippage, or real fills and have real limitations. Past results don't predict future results. See the disclaimer.
Hypothetical · every start date

What if you had started on a different day?

Any record looks better from its best starting day. This takes every closed idea above, in close order, takes a cost off each one (default 0.05R for slippage and fees), and shows the result of every possible start date — not one picked by us. Change the amount risked per idea (default $100) to see it in dollars. Nobody traded these ideas.

Hypothetical results from our trade ideas, scored against market prices. Nobody traded them. They include no commissions, slippage, or real fills and have real limitations. Past results don't predict future results.

Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not been executed, the results may have under- or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown.

Founder scorecard

Separate from the ideas above: the founder's own account.

Everything above is our posted trade ideas, scored on paper. This is different: real closed trades in the founder's personal account, every month, red ones included.

Sage's personal Robinhood account — realized P&L only, mostly leveraged ETFs at high risk. One person's results: not typical, not a prediction of yours, and not a guarantee. As of Sep 28, 2026 · trading is risky · not financial advice. Sage and the Nexural team trade their own accounts and may hold, buy, or sell any security we discuss, including before, during, or after we post about it. Our posts show our trades; they are not a recommendation for you.

2026 win rate

67%

2026 closed trades

105

70 wins · 35 losses

2026 realized

+$437,259

Jan 1 → Sep 28

Last 12 months

+$445,238

Sep 29, 2025 → Sep 28, 2026

Average win vs average loss · 2026

in 2026, the average win is 3.7× the average loss

Avg win
+$7,210
Avg loss
−$1,928
Realized P&L by monthMay 2024 → Sep 2026 · same scale up and down
Losing monthsAug 2024 −$1,665Dec 2024 −$1,845Nov 2025 −$120Jan 2026 −$955Mar 2026 −$1,617

Months with no bar had no closed trades. Red bars are small because the losses were small next to the wins — not because they're hidden.

Realized profit and loss by month
MonthRealizedClosed trades
May 2024+$661
Jun 2024no trades0
Jul 2024no trades0
Aug 2024−$1,6652
Sep 2024no trades0
Oct 2024no trades0
Nov 2024+$3,9426
Dec 2024−$1,8451
Jan 2025no trades0
Feb 2025no trades0
Mar 2025+$3072
Apr 2025no trades0
May 2025no trades0
Jun 2025no trades0
Jul 2025+$232
Aug 2025no trades0
Sep 2025+$6,5415
Oct 2025+$8,0997
Nov 2025−$1203
Dec 2025no trades0
Jan 2026−$9554
Feb 2026+$40,60816
Mar 2026−$1,6179
Apr 2026+$32,7435
May 2026+$503
Jun 2026+$52,97410
Jul 2026+$72,61916
Aug 2026+$104,21716
Sep 2026+$136,61926

Sage's personal Robinhood account — realized P&L only, mostly leveraged ETFs at high risk. One person's results: not typical, not a prediction of yours, and not a guarantee. As of Sep 28, 2026 · trading is risky · not financial advice. Sage and the Nexural team trade their own accounts and may hold, buy, or sell any security we discuss, including before, during, or after we post about it. Our posts show our trades; they are not a recommendation for you.

See every trade

The full proof story

This page is the engine's raw output. It's one piece of a larger transparency surface — the rest of it lives here.

See the founder's trade logMembers — open Swing Desk

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